AL Central: Tribe's future will take shape in second half

Baseball Betting Lines

07/16/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For Cleveland Indians fans, the hard part is over.

They've endured a first half of the season that saw their team finish 20 games below .500 (34-54) and fall 15 1/2 games off the pace in the American League Central. Granted, not even the most die-hard Cleveland fans were penciling the Indians into a postseason spot in 2010. General manager Mark Shapiro made certain to temper any such expectations at the outset of the season.

Having just limped past the halfway point of the season, the Indians will use the second half to put their future plans into focus. And despite being buried in the standings and having the lowest attendance figures in the majors, there are a few reasons for optimism in Cleveland.

At the forefront is rookie catcher Carlos Santana, who so far has certainly lived up to his super-prospect hype. In only 95 big league at-bats, Santana has homered five times, driven in 16 runs and hit .284. Likewise, first baseman Matt LaPorta, the key prospect in the CC Sabathia deal in 2008, has started to come along lately. In 12 games since being recalled from a minor league detour on June 27, he's hit .357 with four homers and 11 RBI.

But the one guy who has really rewarded the organization for its patience is starting pitcher Fausto Carmona (8-7), who earned his first All-Star nod with a 3.64 ERA and a pair of complete games through 18 starts. Most importantly, the right-hander has drastically cut down on the number of walks that led to his demotion to the minors last year.

Fellow starter Jake Westbrook may never produce to the level of his $11 million annual salary, though lately he has made steady progress in his return from Tommy John surgery. It would be a bonus for the front office if he has pitched well enough to attract an offer from a team looking for starting pitching help at the trade deadline.

Cleveland took a big hit with the season-ending knee surgery to three-time All-Star outfielder Grady Sizemore in May. Injuries to right fielder Shin-Soo Choo (thumb) and shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera (forearm) obviously haven't helped the Tribe's fortunes at the plate as well, although both are targeting a return by the end of July. Before his thumb injury on July 2, Choo was in line for an All-Star nod with a .286 batting average, 13 home runs and 43 RBI.

Mitch Talbot has been a pleasant surprise in the rotation, leading all AL rookies with eight wins. In addition, fellow starter Justin Masterson seemed to get into a groove over his last few starts. And in the bullpen, Chris Perez has emerged as a legitimate candidate to take over the closer's job.

All in all, things aren't looking so bleak for incoming GM Chris Antonetti, who will replace Shapiro at the end of the season. Still, the primary objective for manager Manny Acta and the front office is to identify which players will be around for the long haul. The evaluation process takes center stage when the team resumes play Friday night.

"I just want these young kids to get out and play hard," Acta said. "We're going to get something out of it. We're going to be able to see who's going to join that core that we're building for the future."

ROOKIES BOESCH, SCHERZER KEY FOR TIGERS' SECOND HALF

When looking at how the Detroit Tigers' roster shapes up, it's given that Miguel Cabrera will put up big power numbers, Justin Verlander will mow down opposing lineups, and Johnny Damon will continue to make key veteran contributions. But to seize the top spot in the AL Central, it's up to some of Detroit's younger guys to produce in the second half.

Cue rookie outfielder Brennan Boesch and 26-year-old No. 2 starter Max Scherzer, both of whom have been instrumental in the Tigers' first-half record (48-38). In eight starts since returning from his midseason demotion to Triple-A Toledo, Scherzer is 5-2 with a 2.44 ERA, averaging 11 strikeouts per nine innings. Boesch has his name in the mix for Rookie of the Year honors thanks to a ridiculous .342 batting average, 12 homers and 49 RBI. He boasts a .593 slugging average and is on pace for nearly 300 total bases as a rookie.

It's tough to imagine Boesch keeping up that kind of pace for the duration of the season, but the Tigers do need his presence in the middle of the lineup. As for Scherzer, the Tigers need him to continue to bridge the gap between Verlander and the rest of the rotation.

If both can achieve their respective goals, it would go a long way toward helping the Tigers finally capture their first AL Central crown.

WHITE SOX PICK UP RIGHT WHERE THEY LEFT OFF

When a team is as hot as the Chicago White Sox have been, typically the last thing the players want is some time off. Winners of eight straight heading into the All-Star break, you could hardly blame the White Sox for wanting to keep the train rolling.

Nevertheless, this week's three-day layoff does not appear to have taken any wind out of Chicago's sails, as the team resumed play Thursday with an 8-7 win over the Minnesota Twins for their ninth consecutive triumph. Prior to that victory, in which Chicago rallied back from a four-run deficit, manager Ozzie Guillen put into perspective what a trip to the playoffs this season would mean to him.

"If we go to the playoffs, it will be most satisfying year I have had in seven years with this ballclub," Guillen told the Chicago Tribune. "This one will be more exciting than the two (previous) playoffs for me."

Over their last 31 games, the White Sox are an incredible 26-5. If they keep up this pace much longer, Guillen figures to be one very satisfied manager.

ROYALS TWEAKING ROTATION FOR SECOND HALF

The baseball adage, "You're only as good as your next day's starting pitcher" is about as old as the game itself. Still, the saying holds true today, as it will for years to come.

That brings us to the Kansas City Royals, whose starters have assembled an unsightly 5.11 ERA as a group. The best of the bunch, reigning AL Cy Young winner Zack Greinke, has fallen victim to insufficient run support, although he's gone 4-0 with a 3.00 ERA over his last five starts to lower his season ERA to 3.71. The staff ace, was scratched from his scheduled start on Sunday with some discomfort in his shoulder, has only a 5-8 record for the year.

Projected No. 2 starter Gil Meche was placed on the 60-day DL on Thursday, a move that was designed to clear roster space for Henry Barrera, who was ending a rehab assignment. Meche is eligible for reinstatement on July 25, though he has not pitched since May 25 and will require some time on a Minor League rehab assignment.

Former No. 1 overall draft pick Luke Hochevar has been out since June 11 with a sprained elbow, though he hasn't been particularly effective anyway in pitching to a 5-4 record and a 4.96 ERA in 13 starts before the injury.

All of that has left manager Ned Yost scrambling. He has even tinkered the rotation so as to line up Brian Bannister for as many day starts as possible.

In six daytime starts this year, Bannister is 4-0 with a 2.37 ERA. But in 12 outing as night, he is 3-7 with a 7.45 ERA. By slotting Bannister in the No. 3 spot in the rotation, four of his next nine starts will come in day games.

Of course, it will take more than Yost's tinkering for the Royals' starters to excel in the second half.

"We have to play consistent baseball, and it all revolves around your starting pitching," Yost told the Kansas City Star. "If we're going to be in it, our starting pitching has to be able to take us to that point."

HITS KEEP COMING FOR FADING TWINS

Already with a 3-8 record in July, the Minnesota Twins can ill-afford many more bad breaks if they are to stay in contention for the AL Central crown. However, they were dealt a big blow on Thursday, when four-time All-Star first baseman and former league MVP Justin Morneau was placed on the 15-day DL with lingering symptoms from a concussion suffered during a collision at second base on July 7.

Morneau worked out for about 25 minutes on an elliptical machine Thursday morning, but later felt some "fogginess" and decided a DL stint would be best to clear out all the cobwebs.

In other injury news, second baseman Alexi Casilla has moved up to Double-A as he rehabs from bone spurs in his right elbow. According to manager Ron Gardenhire, Casilla has seven or eight days left on his rehab assignment, pending any setbacks. Meanwhile, no timeline has been set on reliever Clay Condrey, who has been dealing with a right elbow injury. The right-hander has been touring doctor's offices, with Gardenhire telling the team's website the injury "isn't looking good."

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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