Reds, Rockies get second half started in Cincinnati

Baseball Betting Lines

07/16/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two potential National League playoff teams square off tonight when the Cincinnati Reds host the Colorado Rockies in the opening contest of a three-game weekend series at Great American Ball Park.

The Reds enter the season's unofficial second half in first place in the NL Central, leading the defending division champion St. Louis Cardinals by a half-game.

Meanwhile, the Rockies are second in the NL West -- two games behind San Diego -- but lead the early-stage wild card race by a half-game over the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Right-hander Bronson Arroyo gets the start for Cincinnati with a chance to reach double-digit wins for the fourth time in his fifth season with the Reds.

The Key West, Florida native, acquired from the Boston Red Sox for Wily Mo Pena prior to the 2006 season, was a 14-game winner for the Reds that year and won 15 apiece in both 2008 and 2009.

He got No. 9 of 2010 in his final start prior to the All-Star break, scattering seven hits and allowing one run in eight innings of a 3-1 defeat of the New York Mets on July 7.

He's won four of his last five decisions and has pitched at least seven innings in 10 of 18 starts.

Lifetime against Colorado, Arroyo is 1-2 in eight appearances with a 3.98 earned run average.

For the Rockies, towering righty Jason Hammel can extend an unbeaten streak that stretches back nearly two months.

The 6-foot-6, 215-pounder's last loss was May 21 at Kansas City, but since then he's gone 6-0 in nine starts while lowering his ERA from 7.52 after the Kansas City loss to 4.08 following a 4-2 win over San Diego in his last pre- break start on July 10.

A former draft pick of the then-Tampa Bay Devil Rays, Hammel was sent to Colorado early in 2009 after losing a competition for the fifth starting slot to Jeff Niemann.

He thrived with the Rockies, however, winning 10 games and posting a 4.33 ERA in 176 2/3 innings over 34 appearances, including 30 starts.

He's been used exclusively as a starter in 2010 and has logged 90 1/3 innings thus far, allowing 97 hits, 41 earned runs and 24 walks with 72 strikeouts.

He's made one career start against the Reds and got a no-decision after allowing three hits and two runs in 7 1/3 innings with eight strikeouts.

On Sunday in Denver, ex-Red Matt Belisle's two-run throwing error in the eighth put San Diego ahead for good and Everth Cabrera added a two-run homer in the ninth for insurance in a 9-7 Padres win to close a three-game series against the surging Rockies.

Carlos Gonzalez had a pair of RBI singles to score Jonathan Herrera, who extended his hitting streak to 11 games with a run-scoring triple while walking and scoring twice. Miguel Olivo went 3-for-4 with an RBI for Colorado, which finished up a 10-game homestand at 8-2.

In Philadelphia, Cole Hamels tossed 7 2/3 scoreless innings, while Jose Contreras, J.C. Romero and Brad Lidge finished off the shutout and the Phillies' four-game sweep of Cincinnati with another 1-0 decision.

Matt Maloney (0-2) came up on the losing end despite a quality start. The former Phillies farmhand yielded one run on four hits and a walk in six innings for the Reds, who lost the first three games in the set in extra innings.

Cincinnati did not score in the final 21 innings in the series.

The Rockies won all seven games versus the Reds last year and have taken nine straight and 14 of the last 15 meetings between the teams.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

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